The Nordic Day is tomorrow. Our day, where we all celebrate being the fortunate inhabitants of the Nordic countries. But deep down in the statistical archives of Eurostat we discover a looming danger to our common future as Nordic citizens: Population projections!
The Nordic countries are often seen as a homogeneous group of nations with similar cultures, languages, and welfare systems. However, when it comes to their population trends, there are significant differences and challenges that each country will face in the coming decades. In this text, we will briefly summarize the main projections for the population size and growth of Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, and Finland supplemented with the recent data on fertility.
Sweden, Norway, and Iceland: Growing and Diverse
These three countries are expected to see positive population development, meaning that they will have more people living in them by the end of the century than they do now. Sweden, the largest Nordic country, will grow from the current 10.5 million to 13.3 million, an increase of 27%. You may have thought there were already too many Swedes in the world, but not so!
Norway, currently smaller than Sweden, Denmark and Finland will become the second largest of the Nordic nations, growing from 5.4 million to 6.7 million, an increase of 24%, and thus edging closer to matching the prevailing belief of Norwegians that they must be one of the bigger countries in the world. Iceland, the smallest, will grow from 380,000 to 620,000, an increase of 63% but not changing the fundamental fact that Iceland is and will always be a very small country. The populations of these countries will also become more diverse, as they are expected to have higher net immigration than other Nordic countries.
Denmark: Stable and Stagnant Population
Denmark will have a very modest population growth, only 4% by 2100. This means that there are now as many Danes in the world as there will ever be, unless something changes drastically. Denmark is expected to have a net immigration and a low fertility rate which also will affect the age structure of the population, as Denmark will have a higher proportion of older people and a lower proportion of younger people than the other Nordic countries, except Finland.
Finland: Shrinking and Aging
Finland is the only Nordic country that Eurostat predicts will have a negative population trend. At the end of the century the world will simply contain 800.000 fewer Finns than now (…and that’s a loss!!!). This is mainly due to a low fertility rate and a low net immigration. Finland will also have the highest proportion of older people and the lowest proportion of younger people among the Nordic countries, which will pose challenges for the economy and the welfare system.
Future Denmark: A Tale of Two Populations
Long-term population forecasts for specific regions or countries are significantly influenced by the input factors used, and we hold a bit of skepticism towards the primary inputs in these models. For instance, Denmark’s fertility rate is expected to rise from 1.65 to 1.74 children per woman, yet the current rate is below 1.5 and declining (2023-figures). Predicting net immigration can also be challenging, as illustrated by recent events tied to the conflict in Ukraine.
Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, a professor at the University of Southern Denmark, has conducted a study, results of which were published in Politiken, showing Denmark’s potential demographic future under specific assumptions. The study deliberately omits factors like immigration and rising life expectancy to focus on the impact of Denmark’s low birth rates. Under these conditions, the forecast suggests Denmark’s population could decrease to 2.54 million by 2100 and might drop below 2 million by 2113.
Fewer Nordic Babies, Growing Demographic Concerns
Fertility rates across the Nordic region have dipped below the vital threshold of 2.1, essential for natural population stability. This overarching decline raises concerns about future demographic sustainability.
Finland’s rate has fallen most notably from 1.7 to 1.3, with Norway also seeing a significant drop from 1.9 to 1.4. Denmark and Iceland have experienced declines to 1.6, with Iceland notably dropping from the replacement rate and the latest numbers from Danmark actually fall below 1.5. Sweden’s rate remains at 1.5, but this apparent stability covers a peak of over 2.0 around 2010.
Stay tuned for our upcoming edition of Nordic Insights. We invite you to voice your thoughts on the pressing issues that should be prioritized on the sustainability agenda. Your input will shape our future newsletters as we address these vital topics in greater depth. 💬 Let’s work together to create a greener future! 💚
Wishing everyone a reflective and peaceful weekend, Torfi and Ulla
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