Population Growth in the North Atlantic: Iceland and the Faroes Leave Greenland Behind

The population dynamics of the North Atlantic are changing rapidly, with Iceland and the Faroe Islands emerging as growth leaders while Greenland lags behind. A closer look at the data reveals stark contrasts in natural population growth and net migration rates, shedding light on how policy decisions and economic opportunities are shaping the future of these regions.

Data Source: Population and migration trends are explored using figures from Nordic Statistics. 🌍🔍

Natural Growth: A Declining Trend for All

The Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)—a measure of births minus deaths as percentage of the population—is falling in all three countries. In 2000, Greenland’s RNI stood at 0.76%, comparable to Iceland (0.88%) and the Faroe Islands (0.73%). However, by 2023, RNI for the countries had dropped sharply to 0.39%; 0.45 and 0.3, respectively, signalling stagnation in natural population growth.

Fact Box 1: What is RNI?

• Rate of Natural Increase (RNI): Birth rate minus death rate in a population.
• Expressed as: Number per 1,000 individuals or as a percentage.
• Purpose: Measures natural population growth, excluding migration.
• Positive RNI: More births than deaths; population grows naturally.
• Negative RNI: More deaths than births; population declines naturally

Net Migration: The Game Changer

While RNI reveals one side of the story, Net Migration Rate (NMR) tells the other—and here, Greenland has a serious challenge. Over the past two decades, Greenland has consistently faced negative migration rates, with NMR averaging -0.5% to -1.0% annually. This persistent outmigration, particularly among young people, exacerbates Greenland’s demographic challenges, leaving the region reliant on an aging population.

In contrast, Iceland and the Faroe Islands have turned migration into an opportunity. Iceland, after a brief dip in the late 2000s, has maintained positive NMR since 2013, with a remarkable 2.60% in 2022—driven by immigration linked to economic growth in tourism, renewable energy, and tech.

The Faroe Islands also faced negative NMR during the early 2000s, but targeted policies to improve infrastructure, connectivity, and cultural appeal have reversed the trend. Since 2014, the Faroes have enjoyed positive migration rates, peaking at 1.06% in 2020, further stabilizing their population.

Fact Box 2: What is NMR?

• Net Migration Rate (NMR): The difference between the number of immigrants (people moving in) and emigrants (people moving out) in a population.
• Expressed as: Number per 1,000 individuals in the population or as a percentage.
• Purpose: Measures population change due to migration, highlighting inflows and outflows.
• Positive NMR: More people moving in than leaving (immigration > emigration).
• Negative NMR: More people leaving than moving in (emigration > immigration).

Greenland’s Struggles in Context

Greenland’s combination of declining natural growth and negative migration makes it an outlier in the North Atlantic. While Iceland and the Faroe Islands have leveraged economic and social policies to attract and retain residents, Greenland continues to struggle with:

1. Outmigration: Young Greenlanders often leave for education and better job prospects abroad, with few incentives to return.
2. Limited Economic Diversification: Greenland’s economy remains heavily dependent on fishing, offering fewer opportunities for growth and innovation compared to Iceland’s diversified economy.
3. Aging Population: With low RNI and persistent emigration, Greenland’s demographic base is shrinking, making it harder to sustain economic and social systems.

What Greenland Can Learn

The successes of Iceland and the Faroe Islands offer valuable lessons for Greenland:

1. Attracting Migrants: Iceland’s policies that welcome skilled migrants and create inclusive job markets have bolstered its growth. Greenland could explore similar measures to diversify its economy and attract talent.
2. Reversing Outmigration: The Faroe Islands demonstrate the power of targeted infrastructure investments, such as subsea tunnels and digital connectivity, to encourage young families to stay or return.
3. Economic Innovation: Iceland’s investments in renewable energy and tourism have created sustainable growth opportunities. Greenland’s vast natural resources could provide a similar foundation for diversification.

Conclusion: A Path Forward for Greenland

While Iceland and the Faroe Islands are surging ahead in population growth, Greenland faces stagnation. Reversing these trends will require bold strategies to address outmigration, support young families, and diversify its economy. The data is clear: without action, Greenland risks falling further behind in the race to secure a thriving future in the North Atlantic.

Nordic