Reading the news, we cannot avoid noticing a growing unease in many corners of our societies about falling birth rates. In Denmark, a leading politician recently framed the low birth rates as “the biggest crisis in our societies”. And yes, as Nordic insights has covered before, population prognoses show we are on a tipping point, where populations are no longer growing and some start shrinking.
Let’s put aside how big this problem really is in terms of economy and how easily we could fill the gaps with immigration, if only we cared, and instead focus on understanding the basic data.
In this article we use data from all the Nordic countries and despite their differences they follow more or less the same pattern, so well explained by the late Hans Rosling in his wonderful book Factfulness: From a steady state of 4-5 children per woman to a steady state of 1.5-2.0 children per woman. This has happened in most countries in the world and in the Nordics it happened between 1885 to 1925.
Why we land on 1.5-2.0 children? We don’t really know, but this seems surprisingly stable across different societies. But the little nasty detail is that in order to maintain a steady population, we need women to have at least 2,2 children, which most countries around the world now struggle with. Including the Nordics, since sometime late 60’s. So, this is where our story begins.
To make things simple, let’s look at the following graphs, which shows live births per woman by age for these five Nordic countries.
Key Insights from the Data:
The graph clearly illustrates that we are having fewer children on average now than 50 years ago, and this trend is likely to continue. However, the interesting aspect is how the birth rates break down by age group. Here’s what we can conclude:
- Young women (20-24 years) are having significantly fewer children: Across all five countries, there has been a sharp decline in birth rates for women aged 20-24. This indicates a societal shift where young women prioritize education and careers, delaying motherhood.
- Women between 25 and 34 are having as many children as before: While birth rates for women aged 25-29 are declining, the increase in birth rates among women aged 30-34 has balanced this trend. The latter age group remains the largest contributor to birth rates. However, data suggests that the birth rates for the 25-29 age group are still on a downward trajectory, whereas the rates for the 30-34 age group are stabilizing.
- More women in their late 30s are having children: The birth rates for women aged 35-39 have increased slightly, reflecting the growing trend of later parenthood. However, this increase is not enough to offset the dramatic decline in the younger age groups.
- Women over 40 are still having very few children: As with the past, women over 40 continue to have very few children, and this pattern remains unchanged.
Most children, both historically and today, are born to women aged 25-34. It seems unlikely that this group will start having significantly more children in the future, especially as women within this age bracket are increasingly leaning toward having children later in life.
So, unless we push for women under 25 to have more children, which could jeopardize their education and career opportunities, it seems unlikely that we will reverse this trend.
Our upcoming “Nordic Insights” will take a deeper dive into sustainable development, offering the data we all appreciate. We have been focused on fertility, but next week brings a new topic— stay tuned, and we’ll catch up soon!
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